基于云模型的动力锂电池铁路运输风险评估

石古乐; 张玉召; 常全盛; 张慧

doi:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202501090003

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基于云模型的动力锂电池铁路运输风险评估

规划/运输 | 更新时间：2026-09-28

- 基于云模型的动力锂电池铁路运输风险评估
- Risk Assessment of Railway Transportation of Power Lithium Batteries Based on Cloud Model
- 铁道标准设计 2026年70卷第10期页码：24-32
- 作者机构：
  
  兰州交通大学交通运输学院，兰州 730070
  高原铁路运输智慧管控铁路行业重点实验室，兰州 730070
  中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司货运部，兰州 730015
- 作者简介：
  
  石古乐（2000—），女，硕士研究生，主要从事危险货物铁路运输风险评估工作，E-mail:guyueshi1024@126.com。
  通信作者：张玉召（1981—），男，教授，工学博士，硕士生导师，主要从事铁路客货运技术与管理领域研究工作，E-mail:yuzhaozhang@126.com。
- 基金信息：
  
  甘肃省联合科研基金项目(24JRRA851);中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司科研发展项目(2024013-1)
- DOI：10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202501090003
  中图分类号： U294.8
- 收稿：2025-01-09，
  
  修回：2025-03-05，
  
  网络首发：2025-06-27，
  
  纸质出版：2026-10-20
- 稿件说明：
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石古乐, 张玉召, 常全盛, 等. 基于云模型的动力锂电池铁路运输风险评估[J]. 铁道标准设计, 2026,70(10):24-32.

SHI Guyue, ZHANG Yuzhao, CHANG Quansheng, et al. Risk Assessment of Railway Transportation of Power Lithium Batteries Based on Cloud Model[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2026, 70(10): 24-32.
石古乐, 张玉召, 常全盛, 等. 基于云模型的动力锂电池铁路运输风险评估[J]. 铁道标准设计, 2026,70(10):24-32. DOI： 10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202501090003.

SHI Guyue, ZHANG Yuzhao, CHANG Quansheng, et al. Risk Assessment of Railway Transportation of Power Lithium Batteries Based on Cloud Model[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2026, 70(10): 24-32. DOI： 10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202501090003.

摘要

【目的】

为有效评价动力锂电池铁路运输安全风险，降低运输过程中事故发生概率，保障危险货物的顺利送达，提出一种基于组合预测和云模型的风险评价方法。

【方法】

针对现有研究中风险评价方法的不足，从理论和实践结合的角度，选择一种系统性、科学性和可操作性较强的风险评估方法，为动力锂电池铁路运输的风险管控提供重要支持。首先，为科学评价动力锂电池铁路运输风险水平，从“人—机—物—管—环”5个方面构建动力锂电池铁路运输安全评估指标体系，全面刻画铁路运输过程中可能存在的风险来源，为后续风险评价提供基础；然后，采用熵权法和组合数有序加权（C-OWA）算子确定指标的组合权重；其次，将组合权重代入云模型中，完成评价标准云、指标云和综合云的运算，并利用MATLAB软件生成风险指标和整体风险评价的云图；最后，以西北地区某危险货物货运站为例，进行动力锂电池铁路运输过程中的风险评估。

【结果】

评估结果表明，该运输过程的综合风险等级处于较低风险区间，说明铁路运输在安全管理与技术保障方面具有一定优势。

【结论】

通过案例验证，证明了本文所采用方法的科学性和有效性，为动力锂电池铁路运输安全风险评估提供了重要的方法支撑。

Abstract

[Objective]

To effectively assess the safety risks of railway transportation of power lithium batteries

reduce the probability of accidents during transportation

and ensure the successful delivery of dangerous goods

this study proposes a risk assessment method based on combined prediction and a cloud model.

[Methods]

To address the limitations of existing risk assessment methods

a systematic

scientific

and highly operable risk assessment method was selected from the perspective of integrating theory and practice

providing important support for risk management and control in railway transportation of power lithium batteries.First

to scientifically assess the risk level of railway transportation of power lithium batteries

an indicator system for safety assess

ment was constructed from five aspects:“personnel-equipment-goods-management-environment.”The system comprehensively characterized potential risk sources during railway transportation and provided a basis for subsequent risk assessment.Then

the entropy weight method and the combined ordered weighted averaging（C-OWA）operator were used to determine the combined weights of the indicators.Subsequently

the combined weights were input into the cloud model to calculate the standard evaluation cloud

indicator cloud

and comprehensive cloud

and MATLAB software was then used to generate cloud diagrams of the risk indicators and overall risk assessment.Finally

a dangerous goods freight station in Northwest China was selected as a case study to assess the risks during the railway transportation of power lithium batteries.

[Results]

The assessment results showed that the comprehensive risk level of this transportation process was within the low-risk range

indicating that railway transportation had certain advantages in safety management and technical support.

[Conclusion]

The case study verifies the scientific validity and effectiveness of the proposed method

providing important methodological support for safety risk assessment in railway transportation of power lithium batteries.

关键词

Keywords

references

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