客流二像性阶跃相变及安全设计标准控参辨识

周艳芳; 李健; 单丽辉; 高翔; 李童; 陈志明

doi:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202409020006

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客流二像性阶跃相变及安全设计标准控参辨识

规划/运输 | 更新时间：2026-07-08

- 客流二像性阶跃相变及安全设计标准控参辨识
- Passenger Flow Duality Stepwise Phase Transition and Identification of Control Parameters for Safety Design Standards
- 铁道标准设计 2026年70卷第7期页码：11-17
- 作者机构：
  
  交通运输部公路科学研究院智能交通研究中心，北京 100088
  华北科技学院安全工程学院，河北三河 065201
  河北省多场景水害链生事故智慧应急技术创新中心，河北三河 065201
  交通运输部管理干部学院发展研究中心，河北三河 065201
  北京市轨道交通指挥中心，北京 100101
  北京市交通运输委员会，北京 100005
  深圳市科安应急科技有限公司，深圳 518101
- 作者简介：
  
  作者简介：周艳芳（1982—），女，副研究员，2012年毕业于北京交通大学交通运输规划与管理专业，工学博士，主要从事智能交通与规划研究工作，E-mail：yf. zh@rioh. cn。
  通信作者：李健（1979—），男，副教授，高级工程师，2012年毕业于北京交通大学系统工程专业，工学博士，主要从事城市系统安全应急研究工作，E-mail：lijian@ncist. edu. cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  交通强国试点项目(2021291);河北省高等学校科学研究项目(ZC2025069);中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(236Z0307G);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(3142023002)
- DOI：10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202409020006
  中图分类号： U292.8;N945.17
- 收稿：2024-09-02，
  
  修回：2025-02-12，
  
  网络首发：2025-04-29，
  
  纸质出版：2026-07-20
- 稿件说明：
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周艳芳, 李健, 单丽辉, 等. 客流二像性阶跃相变及安全设计标准控参辨识[J]. 铁道标准设计, 2026,70(7):11-17.

ZHOU Yanfang, LI Jian, SHAN Lihui, et al. Passenger Flow Duality Stepwise Phase Transition and Identification of Control Parameters for Safety Design Standards[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2026, 70(7): 11-17.
周艳芳, 李健, 单丽辉, 等. 客流二像性阶跃相变及安全设计标准控参辨识[J]. 铁道标准设计, 2026,70(7):11-17. DOI： 10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202409020006.

ZHOU Yanfang, LI Jian, SHAN Lihui, et al. Passenger Flow Duality Stepwise Phase Transition and Identification of Control Parameters for Safety Design Standards[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2026, 70(7): 11-17. DOI： 10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202409020006.

摘要

【

目的

】在我国目前通行的设计规范中，

铁路及轨道交通车站疏散能力计算由需求量与通行能力控制参数组成，需求量由各种调查数据归纳与各类数学预测方法综合得到，受限于主客观条件，其量值变化区间较大，因此确定通行能力控制参数作为基础约束对车站客运安全与应急疏散水平的保障至为关键。【

方法

】在对强目的性通勤客流流体力学特征进行分析的基础上，应用大量实地调研数据进行分析挖掘，一是为消除行人流点层数据随机性的信息差，设计通行时长成本倍数指标进行数据透视，发现行人流的阶跃特征，并给出不同于现有基本图的行人流4阶段相位；二是在分析强目的性行人流流粒二像性与离散本质特征基础上归纳得到非线性函数关系式。【

结果

】综合通行时长倍数等进行数据归纳，对应相变区域给出行人流通行拥挤风险阶跃临界值。【

结论

】在分析现行疏散计算思路基础上，结合本研究结果并参照现行设计标准数值，给出控参取值建议，可以更加科学地计算车站疏散能力。

Abstract

[

Objective

]

In the current design specifications of China，the evacuation capacity of railway and rail transit stations is determined by demand and capacity control parameters. The former is obtained from various survey data and mathematical prediction methods. Due to subjective and objective constraints，its value varies over a wide range. Therefore，determining the capacity control parameters as the basic constraints is crucial for ensuring the level of station passenger safety and emergency evacuation. [

Methods

]

Based on an analysis of the hydrodynamic characteristics of strongly purpose-driven commuter passenger flow，a large amount of field survey data was applied for analysis and mining. First，to eliminate the information gap caused by the randomness of point-level passenger flow data，a travel time cost multiple indicator was designed for data interpretation. This revealed the stepwise characteristics of passenger flow and led to the identification of the four-stage phases of passenger flow that differed from the existing fundamental diagram. Second，based on the analysis of the flow-particle duality and discrete nature of strongly purpose-driven passenger flow，a nonlinear functional relationship was derived. [

Results

]

By synthesizing data such as travel time multipliers，the stepwise critical values of passenger flow congestion risk were identified corresponding to the phase transition regions. [

Conclusion

]

Based on the analysis of the current evacuation calculation method，comb

ined with the results of this study and referenced values from current design standards，recommended values for control parameters are provided，which can enable a more scientific calculation of station evacuation capacity.

关键词

Keywords

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